In the Fall of 1996, the Jewish Spectator1 published our analysis of the data collected during the National Jewish Population Survey ("NJPS") of 1990. In October 1996, Moment magazine2 published the Demographic Chart which captured the text of our research with a graphic illustration.
Within only a few years after the Moment debut, the Demographic Chart (and the essence of our analysis culminating in our findings) had been translated into seven languages and had appeared in numerous publications including The New York Times3 and The Vanishing American Jew by Professor Alan M. Dershowitz.4 The Demographic Chart has been publicly cited by many notable Jewish personalities including, but not limited to the former Chief Rabbi of Israel, Rabbi Israel Meir Lau, former Chief Rabbi of England, Lord Immanuel Jacobovitz, Senator Joseph Lieberman and former Prime Minister of Israel Bibi Netanyahu.
It became clear that the main reasons for the multiple appearances of our analysis as well as the high profile that it developed, was the powerful impact of the Demographic Chart which we have now, almost a decade after its first appearance, revisited in this article.
For the sake of clarity and to appreciate how the Jewish demographic landscape has evolved over the past decade, we have utilized a similar format in this article to its namesake published after the culmination of the NJPS 1990.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
With all the controversy surrounding the announcement of the result of the NJPS 2000 - 2001 (hereinafter referred to as the NJPS 2000), the bottom line consensus from a non-denominational perspective is aptly captured by Michael Steinhardt:
Jews in America are demographically endangered.
"... All would agree that Jews in America are demographically endangered. In addition to the usual suspects of assimilation and intermarriage, the survey revealed that Jews in America are getting married later and having fewer children -- so few that we are experiencing negative population growth ... When we remove the Orthodox from the statistical equation, the picture becomes that much bleaker for those American Jews who are most at risk. In the wake of the study, one would have hoped to find a leadership galvanized to change. The NJPS (2000), after all, revealed palpable evidence of a crisis. But the community largely ignored the bad news, justifying its complacency by disputing the study's methodology ..." 5
Mr. Steinhardt's summation is correct.
Based upon the data and the various population studies that are now available, it appears that an extraordinary disintegration of the American Jewish community is in process. There was a time when every Jew could take it for granted that he or she would have Jewish grandchildren with whom to share Seders, Sabbath and other Jewish moments. However, the clear data indicates that this expectation is no longer well founded. Indeed, our studies show that within a short period of time the entire complexion of the American Jewish community will be altered inexorably.
As was the case with the NJPS 1990, the NJPS 2000 targeted four key quantifiable elements of Jewish survival: marriage rates, intermarriage rates, birth rates, and levels of Jewish education. When all of these factors are tabulated and correlated, a troubling picture emerges of the future of American Jewry. Skyrocketing intermarriage rates, declining birth rates, and inadequate Jewish education continue to decimate the American Jewish people.
METHODOLOGY
The information presented here is drawn from the findings of the United Jewish Communities (formerly the Council of Jewish Federations) National Jewish Population Survey (NJPS) of 2000; the American Jewish Identification Survey (2001), a replica study of the 1990 NJPS; numerous data runs from the North American Jewish Data Bank ("NAJDB") a plethora of articles based on the NJPS 2000 and several conference calls with leading academicians and demographers closely involved with the NJPS 2000.
The intermarriage rate for the various denominations was obtained from the North American Jewish Data Bank from data extrapolated from the NJPS 2000. In order to obtain a sufficient number of cases for the data to be statistically significant, the age cohort from 18 to 39 were used for all the denominations. As for average number of children per women, the information was also obtained from the NAJDB for all denominations. Since the NJPS 2000 did not differentiate between Centrist Orthodox and Yeshiva and Chasidic Orthodox, the data for this sub-category was obtained from the seminal study coordinated by Dr. Marvin Schick6 (hereinafter referred to as "the Schick Study").
The Schick Study seemed to indicate a significant (but not huge) undercount of Orthodox family size in the NJPS 2000. Nevertheless, we have essentially conservatively used the NJPS 2000 for the assumptions made in the Demographic Chart.
How Many Jews Are There in America?
According to the NJPS 2000, 5.2 million people in America today constitute the core Jewish population. Of these, approximately one million persons classified themselves as having been born Jewish, but having no identification with any religious group; 185,000 identified themselves as Jews by Choice, i.e., converts. (For the purpose of this article, all Jews by Choice have been considered Jewish, regardless of the denomination recognizing the conversion.) Thus, affiliated Jews numbered approximately 4.2 million in 2000, and constituted about four-fifths of all identified Jews.
Intermarriage Rates and the Dwindling Jewish Population
The NJPS 2000 found that 47% of Jews who married in the past five years had wed non-Jews, up from a readjusted intermarriage figure of 43% a decade ago. The rate of intermarriage has risen dramatically in the past 30 years, from an average of 9% before 1965 to 52% in 1990.
Secular Jews have doubled their intermarriage rate, while Reform and Conservative Jews have tripled theirs.
The 1990 NJPS indicated that Secular, Reform and Conservative Jews are far more likely to intermarry than Orthodox Jews. Secular Jews have doubled their intermarriage rate, while Reform and Conservative Jews have tripled theirs. Secular Jews in the 18 to 39 year age group have an intermarriage rate of 72%, while those over age 39 have an intermarriage rate of 35%. Younger Reform Jews now at a 53% rate, compared to a 16% rate for the older group. Among younger Conservative Jews, the intermarriage rate has increased to 37%, compared to 10% for those over age 39. Only Orthodox Jews have reversed this trend: Their intermarriage rate has fallen from 10% among those over 39 to 3% of the 18-39 group today.
The unadjusted intermarriage rate actually increased in the 18 to 39 year age group between NJPS 1990 and NJPS 2000. This research study as well as the Demographic Chart conservatively utilizes the 47% figure.
Jewish women between the ages of 60-69 have had an average of 2.12 children, whether they were Orthodox, Conservative, Reform or secular. However, among women aged 40 to 49, there is a drastic inter-denominational difference in estimated completed family size. Among those who married, estimated final birth rates have dropped an average of 32% among Conservative, Reform, and secular Jews, who now have a little over 1.45 children per family. At the same time, the estimated final birth rate among the Orthodox aged 40-49 has increased 106% to 4.4 children today. The independent research report done by Professor Alvin I. Schiff and Professor Marelyn Schneider7 concluded that the actual increase was 167% to 5.7 children. For purposes of this research study and the Demographic Chart, we have once again utilized conservatively low numbers just as conservatively low numbers were utilized in our first research article published almost ten years ago. Those numbers are consistent with NJPS 2000.
The NJPS 1990 found that mixed married households contained 770,000 children less than 18 years of age. According to the NJPS 1990, only 28% of these children were being raised as Jews; 41% were being raised in another religion; and 31% were being raised with no religion at all. Moreover, while 28% of children of intermarriage are being raised as Jews, only between 10% to 15% of this entire group ultimately marries Jews themselves. Thus, it is clear that nearly all the children of intermarriage are lost to the Jewish people.
With respect to mixed marriage households, the NJPS 2000 appears to be consistent with the findings of NJPS 1990.
The Connection between Intermarriage, Orthodox Observance and Jewish Education
Just as the decision to intermarry is the product of countless previous decisions about how to live one's life, so too the decision not to intermarry seems to be the product of a lifetime of Jewish living and learning. The research indicates that a stronger commitment to a higher level of Jewish education and observance leads to a lower likelihood of intermarriage and assimilation. The combination of Jewish commitment and having experienced a complete K-12 Orthodox Jewish Day School education results in an intermarriage rate of not greater than 3%. All the research indicates that it is essentially the Orthodox who are committed to such a complete Day School education.
The longer children are in Orthodox Day School, the fewer parents are likely to face the "Guess who's coming to Seder?" issue. Almost all Orthodox families today give their children the greatest number of years of Jewish education. This seems to be crucial to their exceptionally low intermarriage rate. Contemporary Orthodox children generally have at least twelve years of Jewish Day School education, while the peak number of years of Jewish education in the Conservative and Reform movements is generally from four to eight years of Hebrew School, much of it being part-time.
Intensive Jewish education impacts adults as well as children. Indeed, the recent growth in the Orthodox movement has come from five sources: higher marriage rates, increased family size, low intermarriage rates, propensity of those raised Orthodox to remain within the fold, and the influx of baalei tshuvah, or returnees to Jewish life. During the past thirty years, tens of thousands of American Jews who were raised in non-observant homes have committed themselves to an Orthodox lifestyle. Each young adult who "returns" brings along the likelihood of an entire family remaining within the Jewish People.
In summary, the most recent analyses of Jewish population indicate two distinct trends in American Jewry. During the period from 1945-2000 -- and particularly from 1960 to 2000 -- the Orthodox have steadily increased the duration and intensity of their children's education, their birth rate, and the percentage of those raised Orthodox and remaining Orthodox. At the same time, their intermarriage rate has been reduced (see above). Also, for the first time in American history, significant number of Jews who were not raised Orthodox are becoming so. During the same period (1960-2000), intermarriage among other denominations of Judaism has evidenced different trends. The level of education among Secular, Reform and Conservative Jews has (with a few notable exceptions), remained about the same; their birth rate has declined, and their rate of intermarriage has multiplied. Once a Jew intermarries, he or she as an individual remains Jewish, of course, but the likelihood of that person having any Jewish descendants is close to nil (see Demographic Chart).
Long-Range Implications for Today's Jews
Within three generations there will be almost no trace of young American Jews who are currently not being raised in Orthodox homes with a complete Jewish Day School education.
As the Chinese proverb says, "If we don't change our direction, we will end up where we're headed." Elihu Bergman, Assistant Director of the Harvard Center for Population Studies, in a controversial yet disturbing report, had projected in 1975 that unless current trends were reversed, the American Jewish community would decrease by 85% - 98% by the year 2076. This prognosis now seems to apply to descendants of Secular, Reform and Conservative Jews. As far as the Orthodox is concerned, the opposite trend has become apparent. As illustrated in the Demographic Chart, multiple research studies have come to the same conclusion: Within three generations there will be almost no trace of young American Jews who are currently not being raised in Orthodox homes with a complete Jewish Day School education. Clearly, this is discomforting news for all of us to whom Jewish survival is of deep concern. There seems to be no hope that the less traditional approaches will have the same results as the more intensively traditional approach.
The Impact of the Jewish Orthodox Day School
The strongest counter-assimilation effect is exerted by Orthodox Day Schools; the less time-intensive forms of Jewish education have almost no effect on intermarriage. Since most Orthodox families now send their children to Orthodox Day School (usually for at least 12 years), the graduates of today's Orthodox Day Schools will probably be the forbearers of most of the Jews who will exist in this country in the future. This prediction is already beginning to come true: While only 7.8% of Jews aged over 70 are Orthodox, 9.7% of those aged 30-69 are Orthodox and between the ages of 18-29, the Orthodox percentage is 19.5%. Furthermore, approximately 27% of all Jewish children under the age of 18 are being raised in Orthodox families. It is also interesting to note that according to the NJPS 2000, although only 46% of US Jews belong to synagogues, that minority divides up 39% Reform, 33% Conservative, 21% Orthodox and 7% Other. If synagogue affiliation continues to be an important "bell weather" of the denominational forecast for the years ahead, Orthodoxy is capturing a growing market. More specifically, between the ages of 18-34, 34% of Jewish adults who are synagogue members have chosen to belong to an Orthodox synagogue8.
As stated earlier, long-term Jewish survival depends on four choices that each individual Jew makes: the level of personal observance; the choice to marry another Jew; the desire to have two or more children if possible; and the absolute priority of providing maximal Jewish education for oneself and one's children. The relationship among these factors is plain in the data. Choosing Jewish observance is a result of parents having chosen a Jewish education, which in turn is likely to lead to choosing a Jewish spouse. Choosing a Jewish spouse is likely to lead to providing a stronger educational and ritual base for one's children, who then perpetuate the cycle.
Of course, it is never too late for any Jew to enter, or re-enter the cycle of Jewish tradition. During the past 30 years, an enormous outreach movement has developed throughout the world, offering a variety of programs designed to reach out to disaffected Jews. Such outreach programs have been launched by all the major denominations.
Jewish survival depends on religious observance and education because only a long-term, intellectually and spiritually challenging process of Jewish practice and education can provide Jews with the reasons and the commitment not to marry the attractive, friendly Gentile in the office or apartment next door.
Potential solutions for Non-Orthodox Jews
These studies, and their implications, present non-Orthodox Jews with a dilemma. They may not want to become Torah observant -- but they don't want their grandchildren drinking eggnog around the Yule log nor running to prayer at the local Mosque either. What can they do? Without necessarily completely adopting the Orthodox lifestyle themselves, they may still be able to identify what the Orthodox are doing which is successful, and try to apply what they learn.
The data does not comment on whether Orthodox Jews are better as people, or as Jews, than anyone else. It does indicate, however, that they are the one denomination successfully transmitting Jewish tradition. As a group, the Orthodox is demonstrably succeeding at passing on the tradition and at inspiring their children to sustain and perpetuate their own Judaism.
Children who are left without an education leading to deep Jewish beliefs and practices have little chance of having Jewish descendants.
Orthodox parents and Orthodox Day Schools seem to give their children enough good reasons for staying Jewish that even when the children are grown and have the option to intermarry and disappear from Jewish life, virtually none of them do. Somehow, they reach adulthood with solid answers to the question of "Why be Jewish?" Perhaps parents whose children are enrolled in schools of other denominations might analyze why their children's schools are not doing the same for their charges.
Parents who are not Orthodox Day School educated -- or who may even already be intermarried -- may feel uncomfortable at the prospect of providing their children an Orthodox education. Notwithstanding this unease, during the last two decades, tens of thousands of parents ranging from totally unaffiliated on the one hand to an affiliation to the Conservative denomination on the other, have their children enrolled in Orthodox Day Schools.
Although less effective, parents might want to begin by increasing their own Jewish education by enrolling in a class for adults, and then sharing with their children what they have learned. Couples for whom Jewish education is a charged issue can still work together to find ways to provide more Jewish education and exposure for their children than they are currently receiving. For those who find the thought of entering a place of worship an overwhelming task, or who simply live too far from a Jewish place of study or prayer, the past ten years has witnessed the birth of a litany of very user-friendly and voluminous web sites.
After all the trend lines have been drawn and graphs have been analyzed, population studies point to a single conclusion: Regardless of their own personal denominational affiliation, the most important choice that can be made by anyone who cares about the survival of the Jewish people is the choice to support increased religious observance and a full Orthodox Day School education for the maximum number of children.
CONCLUSION
The American Jewish community is now at a critical crossroads. There is finally a dawning recognition that Jewish continuity and survival cannot be sustained in what has been an American lifestyle devoid of serious Jewish education and Jewish living. One might have believed in the 1950's or 1960's that it was sufficient to have minimal Jewish exposure. Examples of such exposure includes simply to be a member of a Temple, have Jewish friends, play basketball at the Jewish Center and live in a generally Jewish neighborhood to ensure that one's children would be Jewish.
However, we now have the data and studies to know that children who are left without an education leading to deep Jewish beliefs and practices have little chance of having Jewish descendants. This is a critical moment for every American Jew and Jewish organization. The American Jewish community needs to radically alter its approach to Jewish life. The first step toward this change is to understand that the present approach is incompatible with Jewish survival, and must be dramatically changed.
Click here to watch a trailer from Out of Faith, a new documentary that follows three generations of a family torn apart by conflicts over interfaith marriage.
1. "Jewish Spectator," Fall, 1996 pp 36-38
2. "Be Fruitful Indeed," October, 1996, p26
3. Tuesday, March 3rd, 1998
4. 1997, Published by Little Brown & Co, page 26
5. "Contact", Journal of Jewish Life Network, Volume 5, number 3, page 9 by Michael H. Steinhardt
6. January 2000, "A Census of Jewish Day Schools in the United States" (Published by the Avi Chai Foundation,)
7. Yeshiva University Research Report, July 1994.
8. UJC - Presentation of Findings, February 2004, based on the NJPS 2000-1
(46) Anonymous, February 11, 2015 8:55 AM
PRAY FOR THE LOST SHEEP TO RETURN TO OUR FOLD
Have been reading and also putting my comments on intermarriage for many years now. Today I would like to put my thoughs in a little different way. I myself have married out and when it is the time of my children going the same way I am pained - I am in total pain. Now I realise the pain my family must have gone through. fEverything is in G-d's hands. He has a plan for all of us.
I request you all to pray to G-d for the families who are losing our children, brothers and sisters to the outside world and also for those who are already on the other side.
Maybe our respected Rabbis can even suggest a single day to pray jointly worldwide, as we have done recently when many of us had kept Sabbath together. Let us feel the pain jointly and pray to G-d. May our prayers reach heaven together in one voice to Almighty G-d. May our ingathering be sooner than we can even imagine. May our lost sheep be miraculously back in our midst.
May the Messiah come soon. May the Holy Temple be rebuilt soon. May there be peace in Isael for ever and ever. Amen.
(45) expatxx, August 8, 2014 9:26 AM
Nothing being done
This problem was recognized over thirty years ago. The Reform and Conservative movements were more interested in giving testimonial dinners to each other and other useless work instead of developing
Jewish day schools for ages K-12. The idea the Orthodox have is to not mix (minimal social contact) with non-jews. While this may limit freedom of movement or choice of activities, it goes a long way to prevent intermarriages. Also, the Reform and Conservative movements did nothing to help prepare children for becoming parents, and providing a good networking system for singles to meet, or even how to act, for that matter- no one has. This is the result. So on top of the 50% assimilation rate, you have 50% of young marrieds divorcing within the first four years of marriage. This is a formula for disaster. How many of those who make it to the chupah make it to the five year mark, let alone the 25 year mark? Mr. Yakubson points out that some 'ultra orthodox' are extreme in their practice. This is the exception, in my experience.
The problem with the very Torah observant is that they don't treat their less observant brothers and sisters well. I've experienced this first hand. If you want to turn off the less observant from becoming more interested in Jewish learning, this is way to do it. The Torah observant community, in my opinion, with the exception of the outreach centers of Chabad, have written off the Conservative and Reform movements to oblivion. Unless we find a way to make Jewish day schooling affordable and desirable, it's over for a large segment of the Jewish population in the US.
(44) Anonymous, May 7, 2013 4:20 AM
Honest Leaders of Reform & Conservative Synagogues Should Convert Renovate their Synagogues to Become Orthodox
I beleive that one of the reasons for the creation of the Conservative and Reform Movements was - because if they made Judaism "easier to observe" they would atract more people. These statistics that prove that the opposite is true -that more Torah and Mitzvot attracts more Jews. Honest Leaders of Synagogues from these movements, seeing that the original intention for the movements have failed - should take council with orthodox rabbis to transform their synagogues to become Orthodox.
Aleks Yakubson, August 14, 2013 2:35 AM
hashed and rehashed many times
the time of unparallelled cultural, technological, civic, political and all other sorts of growth and emancipation in the general human world, that started roughly 200 yrs ago, was also the time of tremendous numeric growth of Jewry--yet tremendous growth of 'untraditional' forms of Jewish religion and identity. if Orthodoxy remains as stale as it is, or as it has periodically gotten during its history, we may very well see what Jews 4-5 generations ago saw: namely, the MASSIVE EXODUS of Jews from Orthodoxy, not Orthodoxy becoming the only or dominant form of Jewishness. because mitztvahz themselves are not the staple, the staple is the goal behind those mitsvahs, and when the understanding of that goal is lost--that Jewish life has to be free, just and successful in all senses--then no amount of mitsvahs will retain the people. what is the share of Orthodox among American Jews, even today? i trust it's about 13%, not that much bugger than what it wad say 40 yrs ago if Orthodoxy is associated primarily with women wearing wigs after marriage, mass gatherings to denounce Internet, pedophilia in yeshivas, sexual abuse of women, illegal immigrant exploitation, underground human organ trade, financial and other economic schemes--then Orthodoxy will never be able to truly be the holder of 'Majority share' in Jewish nation. in other words, it needs to look at itself long and hard first, before offering itself as supposedly the only saviors of Jewry. Before telling everyone else to grow peios and immerse in Talmud study, it's nice to make sure what's under those peios is good enough, and that the Talmud and Torah messages are understood and carried out correctly. which sadly is not always the case Besides, a truly string entity doesn't fear contact with other cultures and identities, it welcomes it and prevails. there have been studies that in Boston area, for instance, the high intermarriage rate coincides with growth, not decrease, of Jewish population
(43) Anonymous, August 14, 2011 3:10 PM
Mr. Richard Horowitz
Although it's very, very late, I'd like to add something about Mr. Richard Horowitz, one of the co-authors of this article. Mr. Horowitz has spent most of his life promoting Jewish learning -- the Torah way. He has thus helped change lives, for the good and forever. A thank you seems a bit inadequate; in any case, it’s probable that the kind of thanks he wants is for those he has helped, to turn and help other Jews find their way home.
(42) Anonymous, January 16, 2011 4:13 PM
Generational Failure to Support Judaism
Living in modern America allows American Jews essentially unlimited opportunity to seek ‘life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness’ – The American Dream. Unfortunately, majoritarian American values and practices are increasingly antithetical to Traditional Jewish values and practices. As a body, most American Jews do not seem to recognize that just because we CAN do virtually anything we please does not mean that we SHOULD do virtually anything we please. The following quotation from this article illustrates this point: “The 1990 NJPS indicated that Secular, Reform and Conservative Jews are far more likely to intermarry than Orthodox Jews. Secular Jews have doubled their intermarriage rate, while Reform and Conservative Jews have tripled theirs. Secular Jews in the 18 to 39 year age group have an intermarriage rate of 72%, while those over age 39 have an intermarriage rate of 35%. Younger Reform Jews now at a 53% rate, compared to a 16% rate for the older group. Among younger Conservative Jews, the intermarriage rate has increased to 37%, compared to 10% for those over age 39. Only Orthodox Jews have reversed this trend: Their intermarriage rate has fallen from 10% among those over 39 to 3% of the 18-39 group today.” My personal journey as a ba'al teshuvah arose in direct response to the emptiness these trends produced in my own life, and the spiritual bankruptcy they represent. I consider whatever difficulties may have arisen out of my decision to travel ‘the road less taken’ to be minor compared to the personal and spiritual benefits of choosing a more Traditional lifestyle. I expect NO SUPPORT from the ‘mainstream’ Jewish Community in ‘walking the walk’. All I can do is set an example, and try to teach my daughters what I have learned. I hope that my daughters and their children, should they have any, will recognize these truths and apply them in their own lives. However, the choices are ultimately theirs.
(41) Anonymous, August 18, 2010 12:08 AM
I am happy this article came about. I am half jewish and half native american indian. There are alot of times I do not feel excepted by either side. People ask me what were my parents thinking. Do you how bad that hurts. So now I am learning Torah on my own and through Aish.com. Thank you Aish for being there.
(40) Dovid, June 17, 2009 3:09 PM
There are variables that are not very quantifiable
Such as parental involvement. The attitudes of the family. In the end, the conculsions of this study all point to a lack of value given to Jewish identity and the importance of ONLY marrying other Jews. Parents need to stress that dating non Jews is absolutely off limits. Non Jews are not to be considered "practice dating".
(39) Anonymous, May 8, 2007 8:47 AM
Reasons for Inter-marriage and assimilation
It is unfortunate that jews marry non-jews. But there are reasons for it.
Many jewish women this day and age are career oriented, hardly interested in having a family and kids. By the time the start thinking about it, they are in their 30s, which is too late.
A young jewish man, who has a career, successful, would be interested in a woman who is kind and compassionate, not a workoholic.
There is a lot of competition from non-jewish women, many of whom are very good looks, intelligent, non-snobby. Their expectations are not as high compared to the jewish women of the same league. So, unless jewish women lower their expectations towards jewish men, intermarriage will not stop, instead it will keep growing.
I hope that many jewish women take my comments in a positive way, accept the reality, and do something rather than blame jewish men of how bad they are, lack of chivalry, and other stuff.
Many jewish men who have chivalry are not given a chance to prove themselves because of the assumptions that they do not have it in them right from the start.
(38) Marina Rivera del Aguila, March 25, 2007 3:42 PM
Torah study is indispensable!
Just following traditions is not enough. Since the basis of Jewishness is the Torah, that alone is the remedy for Jews who do not find anywhere else anything solid to hold them true. The food for the holidays is great, but who commanded us to celebrate them? Do we know where, how, when, and by whom were we told to remember Shabbat? Who is asking us TODAY to be loyal and faithful?
(37) Nahomi, March 20, 2007 2:48 PM
Great !
I am myself converse , Orthx conservative, Jewish, And Its asome and great how this articles help to understand the importance of raising Jewish children, In the future and I will like to marry an othx Jewish men to marry, and see my grandsons wearing kippah, Its such a basic and simple mitzva and so full of Love !
Nahomi
(36) nosson cohen, March 20, 2007 2:10 PM
Jewish grandchildren
May I make a suggestion:
This wonderful article should be circulated as much as possible. Not just to unaffiliated Jews, but also to every member of the US Congress, and to any political wannabe who will be in a position of power in the next five to ten years. At worst, it will make someone become religious and return to authentic Judaism. At best, it will make the power brokers of our country-the medinah shel chesed, or country of kindness-understand what sector of the Jewish vote needs to be courted, and will make the efforts to pass laws that benefit Orthodox Jews alot easier (i.e. tuition credits-which will help numerous additional Jewish children receive a Jewish Day School education that can guarantee the continued vitality and growth of American Jewry)
(35) Anonymous, March 19, 2007 4:12 PM
Orthodox Day School Alternatives
What are the actual retention statistics for non-Orthodox day schools? How far back does the study track? What are the numbers for Canadian Jewry, which has many non-Orthodox day schools?
(34) Jenn, March 19, 2007 2:57 PM
Great Article
This article was very enlightening and also very frightening. The rate of intermarriage is truly sad. These people need to wake up in order for the Jewish people to survive.
(33) Anonymous, March 18, 2007 10:33 PM
Jewish education IS THE ANSWER
Jewish education is the only answer. How can we expect any Jew to feel Jewish without knowing where they come from? Many, children of Holocaust Survivors (and in some cases Holocaust Survivors themselves) don't even know anything about their own families' past. So, there are Hebrew schools that cost a lot of money. Many Jewish families cannot afford to pay for Hebrew schools, Jewish affiliation memberships, and more. Once we make all Jews feel welcomed in Synagogues and Hebrew schools without making them feel like criminals for not being wealthy, our children will be more than happy to stay Jewish and send their children to Hebrew school. Now, let's decide how to pay for that!
(32) kenneth ailende, March 17, 2007 10:47 AM
i love jewish
i want to get marry to jowish lady that have the fear of God,a lady that will love me and make me happy for the rest of my life
(31) Tzvi, March 16, 2007 2:26 PM
This is a waste of time
Aish and other kiruv organizations should start being m'karev the kerovim before it's too late. Nurit -- let's save ourselves first. I often hear that kiruv is p'kuach nefesh. I believe the halacha in p'kuach nefesh is to make sure the boat itself isn't sinking before you start throwing down the life vests. If we had a frum society that embodied Torah ideals, people would beg to join.
(30) Nurit Moskoske, March 15, 2007 2:34 PM
It is expensive!!!
Reading this article makes my heart break. I am aware that this is a problem because I have extended family that have married non jews and their children do not know what it is to be a jew (or know very little).
Jewish Education- One of the main reasons that people do not send their children to Jewish School is that it is simply too expensive and people just can't afford it! I was just wondering, does anyone who reads my comment have any suggestions of how to LOWER the cost?
Secondly, one of my good friends who is a "Traditional Israeli" wanted to send her child to an orthodox school and the school would not accept her child because she is not an observant jew. Does that make any sense?
I thinj that we need to question ourselves and ask what WE are doing to save our brothers and sisters.
(29) Anonymous, March 15, 2007 2:32 PM
I wish I could forward this to my cousins!
This is a great article. I wish I could forward to my cousins who just switched from a conservative to a reform shule in the States. I think they might be offended!! The good news is that they are traditional at home with Shabbat Kiddish on Friday night. Maybe that will be enough to stick with their kids??
(28) Andy, March 15, 2007 10:53 AM
Orthodox day school no answer for masses
Most Jews who leave the fold find no compelling reason not to.Many I know live as follows: They don't go to church. They often have a Passover meal and light Chanukka candles along with an Easter meal and Christmas dinner.These are not seemingly celebrated as religious festivals by most of those in attendence. Religion is not an important issue in their lives. Outside of Israel I agree that the vast majority of grandchildren of those marriages will be lost to the Jewish people. Few parents will be comfortable sending their children to a school which teaches the kids that their parents are living in a manner against God's will. In non orthodox day schools the lack of commitment to make Jewish learning a priority makes for relatively few people willing to pay the high tuition. If a program like birthright offered free tuition to non orthodox and/or a very tolerant orthodox day school then there would I believe be a huge increase in enrollment.
(27) Daniela, March 15, 2007 10:49 AM
To Ray :
Sorry, but you are not correct - the Orthodox were not the hardest hit, everyone was hit pretty equally. There were not more religious than non-religious in the camps. In fact, it could be said that the non-religious were hit harder because they least expected it. Many who are religious today are the children and grandchildren of religious survivors who instilled enough faith in their children to continue our heritage with more pride than ever.
(26) Ed, March 14, 2007 2:44 PM
The Cost of Jewish Day School Education
It's not cheap! Assume an average of $8,500 per year per child. A K-12 Jewish Day School education for two children would cost over $200,000. Then the parents have to spend for college, if they have any money left by then! Only the most religiously committed Jews or the wealthy are going to try to crack that financial nut. In fact, many Orthodox Jews are buckling under the pressure of the tuition squeeze and are starting to look for alternative such as home-schooling their children. (As an interesting note, the Orthodox are generally the least affluent sector of the American Jewish community. Yet it is they who are making the biggest sacrifices to ensure a Jewish future).
(25) ray, March 14, 2007 2:33 PM
who knows
great article.
although the jews in europe could have made the same chart. but it turns out the orthodox were hardest hit by the holocaust.
same thing today in israel with iran.
(24) Sharon, March 14, 2007 2:27 PM
Advice to Rachel
Rachel, I pulled my son out of day school because the school was destroying his love for Judaism. Every day he would come home saying "I hate being Jewish." In school, he was being bombarded with rules and list of don'ts, totally missing the beauty of Judaism. My husband and I decided that while we might not be able to better than the school at giving him a Jewish education, we certainly couldn't do much worse. Five years later, he is eagerly looking forward to his bar mitzvah and has rediscovered much of his joy. My advice is to love your daughter, believe in your daughter, and try to make Judaism fun.
(23) Anonymous, March 14, 2007 12:29 AM
(click to enlarge) the drop in the collective bucket
In response to article will your grandchildren be Jewish
The chart of projected assimilation seen in this article is as accurate now as it was at the conception of the nation of Israel. There has always been a secular, reform, conservative, centrist orthodox and ultra Orthodox Judaism; it can be correlated to a "bell curve". The numbers don't change and neither do the personalities of those who practice these different phenotypes of Judaism. It is a fact that there is only a single plausible method to Judaism and it was given to our ancestors at Mount Sinai however, it is amongst them the following "system" was most evident.
There will always be a balance between Jews that keep to their roots, Jews that fall of the wagon, and those who are just barley hanging on observing as the weight at either side of the scale tips them in favor of the majority. This is a controlled equation It serves many purposes, one of which is called free will.
Solution: look at your great grandparents ask yourself what did they do. Why did or didn't they assimilate/ intermarry? Which are you a by product of. Do you want your kids to continue to be a part of this family tree called Judaism? Simple isn't it!!!?
(22) Tziporah, March 13, 2007 7:11 PM
Another option
There is another possibility. I have a complicated past (my great-grandmother was born Jewish but adopted by a non-Jewish family -- before I knew that I had converted to Judaism.) Anyway, when I married my Jewish husband my exposure to Judaism was pretty non-existent. My husband, even though he was 100% Jewish, knew even less than me. We committed to raise our children as Jews though. My husband's grandparents came to our oldest son's bris. At the age of 80 it was the first bris they had ever been too. My totally secular in-laws now celebrate Pesach with us and Channukah (ok we are working on the others.) My husband and his father had never been given Hebrew names. All of the great grandparents had been Orthodox.
My point is that even though my husband thought he was marrying out -- it turned out to be a blessing because now the whole family has moved to accept more mitzvot. Perhaps some of these disappearing children will find the same thing.
We just don't know what will really happen.
(21) Anonymous, March 13, 2007 4:48 PM
Lethargic...
Jews are lethargic... I have 3 lovely talented kids,, and in the Jewish dating scene...it seems that dating expectations to all concerned are unrealistic and unfocused i.r.t. marriage...guys lack drive, and gals lack charm...oi vey... help...osharnu..!!!
(20) Rachel, March 13, 2007 9:32 AM
Living Orthodox, but my daughter doesn't want to
My husband is a baal teshuva and I'm a convert. Our older child, a teen daughter, constantly complains about being Jewish. We sent her to day school thru 8th grade; she refused to go to a Jewish HS. Any suggestions about how to handle this?
(19) Roo, March 13, 2007 7:34 AM
responses to 2 posters
1.) Don't go to Aish for a shidduch if your son isn't fully observant. Why doesn't he become fully observant? What can't he "give up"? Is that one thing more important than finding a wife? Can't the reform and conservative shuls help out? Why don't YOU as a concerned parent set up a singles' group in your own home and rotate homes? Let the participants run the show. You just call the first meeting and buy refreshments.
To David: The orthodox marry other Jews and have Jewish babies. Those babies marry other Jewish babies.
If the reform and conservative want to start a day school for reform or conservative in their towns, then start doing it! My mother in law was one of the founding families of a K-8 orthodox Jewish day school in a midwestern city. They do not have money to donate but they did fundraising, phone calls, research, etc. People need to get involved and not sit back and expect things to happen on their own.
Roo in Florida (who is a baal teshuva and found her own shidduch on jdate, thank you very much)
(18) Anonymous, March 13, 2007 7:31 AM
You overlooked a group
A significant source of "new" Reform & Conservative Jews is the formerly Orthodox. I would hope this source will always be there!
(17) Ron Ostrander, March 13, 2007 2:18 AM
Give our Torah a chance
This "study" to me just isn't making it. As one who has come to the Jewish faith from the outside the article fails to address our Faith based on it's merits. The article makes no mentin of our Tanakh??
(16) davidghm, March 12, 2007 9:07 PM
problem
the problem with your one-sided article is that it gives no viable solutions to non-orthodox families.
and, you don't seem to realize how it may alienate non-orthodox people.
can you deal with that?
(15) Sharon, March 12, 2007 7:55 PM
Will your grandchildren be Jews?
Children who are left without an education leading to deep Jewish beliefs and practices have little chance of having Jewish descendants
(14) Anonymous, March 12, 2007 12:59 PM
This will not improve as it stands now
I would like to comment on this article.I have since joined an outreach center associated with AISH (since 2004)with my son and husband in our area. Although I and my son had both asked that a Shiduch be found for my son, although Traditional and not Orthodox in practice,he is extremely modest with good Midos and values,keeps Kosher and Shabbat and the Chagim, we have had no response to this request.
It therefore comes as no surprise that he has since dated some non-Jewish girls as he does not meet Jewish ones or the Jewish ones that he meets are not open to someone that is a little more religious.
Although I am concerned with this, the Jewish girls that he has met until now, seem to have looser morals than the Goyisha ones that he has met, and he has yet to hear from the Rabbi and/or the Rabbi's wife about finding him a fitting Shiduch. No one has gotten back to us on this.
If this is the way things operate, how can one expect for the Jewish people other than the Orthodox ones to marry someone Jewish?
One other thing, he has tried the Jewish dating sites and it seems the Jewish girls in the USA are not interested in his looks since he is a Sefaradi/Middle Eastern looking, Israeli born Jew.Since they seem to only want an Ashkenazi look and the Goyisha girls are more receptive to these Middle Eastern looks, he has only had more luck with dating non-Jewish girls overall.
He is now almost 28, is well educated and a professional and has been working fulltime for many years, but still has yet to have a Shidduch as he had requested from the Rav.
As there are really no Jewish dances or social get togethers in our area for professional Jewish singles, it is hard to meet a quality Jewish person nowadays if you are not living in Israel.
I therefore, don't see that this situation will be improving anytime soon with Jews that are not practicing at the Orthodox level.
Thank you for allowing me to comment on this article.
(13) Elina, March 12, 2007 10:14 AM
Jews will never disappear
One thing to realize is that Jews will never disappear as a people. We are guaranteed so in the Torah, by Hashem himself. That said, this promise was given to the collective people, but each individual Jew may choose differently. One thing that I believe is absolutely wrong to do is to make concessions and compromise the Torah in an effort of "Jewish continuity". One of the Conservative rabbis in my community was celebrated very heartily for getting the Conservative Beit Din to accept that a Kohen may marry a divorced woman (even though Torah forbids it), for the sake of Jewish continuity. This is a problem, but the cause I believe was the fact that the line became blurred between Jews and non-Jews as a result of promoting the Conservative and Reform movements. Judaism does not need to be "REFORMED"; it was formed once and for all - and all it needs is to sustain in its original form. That's the secret of the Orthodox. You may choose to continue your religion or not as a Jew - for yourself; because the Jewish people as a nation will continue, with or without the intermarried, inter-religious, or inter-denominational.
(12) Anonymous, March 12, 2007 8:00 AM
The Orthodox lead in Jewish continuity is not at all related to the K-12 Jewish dayschool.
I am writing in response to the article 'Will Your Grandchildren Be Jews?'
The main reasons that the Orthodox Jews lead in regard to Jewish continuity through a low intermarriage rate and a high birth rate have nothing to do with K-12 Jewish day school education.
Before the existence of K-12 Jewish day schools, the Orthodox way of life itself successfully ensured the Jewish continuity of its population. K-12 Jewish day schools only enhance this success.
Jewish continuity is not at all reliant on the K-12 Jewish day school.
As espoused by rabbis and Jewish educators throughout the centuries, the cornerstones of Jewish continuity are;
* Observance of Shabbat.
* Kashrut.
* Avoidance of the dominant culture and population of host nations.
* Early marriage and marriage purity laws.
The observance of Shabbat ensures family and community bonding on a weekly basis.
Observance of Kashrut ensures that socialisation takes place only among observers of Kashrut.
Most Orthodox families do not let their children watch TV, go to the cinema or use the Internet.
Interaction with non-Orthodox people, let alone non-Jewish people, is strictly limited and avoided if possible.
In the main, Orthodox youth, especially the young women, are discouraged from going to university and marriage at an early age is the norm.
Therefore long-term interaction with non-Orthodox and non-Jewish people is avoided as well as the university hothouse of ideas, along with the methodology of comparative/analysis and the danger of such a methodology being applied to the Torah.
Family purity laws ensure a high birth rate.
Persecution of Jews has also ensured homogeneous Jewish populations. Research has shown that K-12 Jewish day schools, alone or combined with Conservative or Reform Jewish lifestyles have not stemmed the tide of assimilation to the extent that the Orthodox communities have, with or without Jewish day schools.
Critiques of the second, third and fourth cornerstones of Jewish continuity, as described above, are understandably numerous and usually allude to self-imposed 'ghettoisation', a price that all but the Orthodox, rightly or wrongly, refuse to pay.
There are other possible paths to Jewish continuity. The majority of the population of Israel is 'secular' Jewish. Here perhaps lies another road to Jewish continuity.
(11) Jeff Muchnik, March 11, 2007 4:38 PM
My 2 cents to Unity of Jews
I have written many articles about the complete lack of cohesion among Jews in Canada and the United States. I have submitted these articles to many Jewish Newspapers and Magazines and influential Jews. Very few have published my articles. I have spoken to many Temples in both Canada and the United States and leaders within these Temples. Again, very few have seemed to care much less do anything to change the dire situation. Until Jews wake up and feel a requirement for being a cohesive group and not just an individual choice for survival, there is very little optimism. I can be reached at jeffrey.muchnik@gmail.com if anyone is serious to discuss further my solutions. Shalom.
(10) Anonymous, March 11, 2007 4:37 PM
Unfortunate reality
Having grown up in an "out of town" setting, and being the Rabbi's son, I can relate directly to these conclusions.
From the perspective I gained, I would have renamed the article:
Will you have grandchildren? If yes, will they be Jews?
The American culture of selfishness and instant gratification stacks the odds against one becoming a grandparent, specifically when dealing with unaffiliated or "cardiac" Jews (a Jew at heart).
May Hashem extend the Teshuva movement to include all Jews, that they may appreciate the legacy from their ancestors that they unfortunately know nothing about.
(9) Boris Gorbis, March 11, 2007 4:14 PM
Three grouops buck the trend: One is Orthodox The other two...?
It is ironic that two groups mostly disengaged from the Jewish organizationsl life, the Russian-speaking and Persian Jewish newcomers (since 1970's) to America buckle these trends. The rate of intermarriage is under 17% and the number of children is consistently 2.3 for Russians and 2,7 for Iranian Jews i.e. within the reproducing range. Yet they are looked down upon by their American cousins in the mainstream as somehow being either too Iranian or not Jewish enough.
(8) Anonymous, March 11, 2007 1:36 PM
It is time that humanity gets rid of all religions and concentrate on education
Intermarriages are a good indication that religion is no longer a dividing taboo in some countries and it should become a model to get rid of the nonsense being perpetuated by most.
(7) Hannah, March 11, 2007 12:19 PM
my solution
My experiance with Judaism may shed some more light on just what is happening in America. I married a non-Jew, walked away from Judaism for awhile, then started finding my way back. My non-Jewish husband didn't like the new me and the fact that I refused to continue our Friday night clam chowder dinners, etc. So after the divorce I spent some time in Israel, and felt compelled to bring my daughters there to experience their Jewish side. One of them ended up making aliyah and is seriously involved with a Sabra, with a marriage in the future, I hope. The other was not drawn to either Israel or Jewishness and chose a secular life with a secular ex-Morman. So my stats are 50% intermarriage so far. I think the clincher is Israel. I don't see anything in your study of what percentage of intermarrieds traveled to Israel in their youth. If we want to save American Jewry, we might start thinking seriously of making aliyah. At least taking kids to Israel, for a kibbutz summer or whatever, seems to make a difference.
(6) Eileen, March 11, 2007 11:37 AM
I think that in the West what is needed is a non-orthodox Jewish Day School on the model of an Israel school. Families who aren't religious are not comfortable to send their children to a religious school.
If there were reasonably priced Jewish schools where all the kids there are Jewish then of course the children are immersed into an enviornment where the cycle of the Jewish year is a normal thing and all their friends will be Jewish and this will isolate them more from having mostly goyish friends and later on goyish girlfriends.
I live in Israel so my children are "safe" but I see my sister's children and it kills me to know that they both will marry goyim. I can talk to them for hours trying to explain why it is so important not to throw away their rich heritage but they feel that Jewish is a religion only and not a nationality.
Having a non-religious day school system available for those who want to prevent this assimilation happening would be perfect. That is my humble opinion.
(5) Lester Helmus, March 11, 2007 11:04 AM
KPD Clubs is the answer
For the past two years I have sponsored the KPD Club at Drexel University. Our main goal is to advocate for the survival of Israel. Supporting activities include Shabbat observance at Hillel and Service to the local Jewish community. Please learn more at kpdscholarships.org/lesterspage.html .
(4) Anonymous, March 11, 2007 10:47 AM
acceptance of interfaith in day schools
I have taught at a Jewish Day School for 17 years and from what I have seen in the last few years is that , if we don't start welcoming interfaith couples, and to make a point of welcoming them, the conservative, reform day schools will G-D forbid be a thing of the past. What do you think?My son married a non-Jew but made sure his kids would be Jewish , with a Mikvah, and my Grandson now goes to my school.I believe that even without the Mikvah, children should be allowed in the schools because we will loose them all.
(3) Anonymous, March 11, 2007 10:18 AM
Also a demographic problem in the West
In the west, particulary America, statistics show that we as a population are declining because most Americans tend to marry later on their live if they ever marry therefore decreasing their fertility chances to have children even as little as 2.
(2) Donald, March 11, 2007 9:18 AM
Very Alarming!
Very alarming!... From the statistics cited in the article, it doesn't seem that there is much time left to correct the problem.
(1) Anonymous, March 11, 2007 8:53 AM
need free Hebrew education
The New York City Dept. of Education is starting an Arabic school where the main language of Arabic will be spoken and taught. Where is the Hebrew school where Hebrew language, Hebrew history etc. will be taught. This school would be supported by general tax dollars.