Israel's just-completed ground incursion in the Gaza Strip that began on March 1, 2008, should not have triggered much international debate. After all, for more than seven years Palestinian terrorist organizations have been intentionally firing rockets indiscriminately against Israeli civilian targets, especially at the Israeli town of Sderot which has absorbed roughly 45 percent of the nearly 3,000 attacks that have been launched.[1] As Israeli Minister of Public Security Avi Dichter noted on March 2, with the inclusion of the city of Ashkelon in the Palestinian target list, the number of Israeli civilians under rocket threat from Gaza has increased from 25,000 to 250,000.
With the inclusion of the city of Ashkelon in the Palestinian target list, the number of Israeli civilians under rocket threat from Gaza has increased from 25,000 to 250,000.
In complete contrast, Israeli military operations in Gaza in response to Palestinian rocket attacks have been directed at military targets, including rocket factories, rocket squads, and terrorist commanders. When Palestinian civilian casualties have occurred, they have been an unintended by-product of Israel's self-defense efforts. The fact that the Palestinian terrorist organizations often position their launch sites in urban areas and stockpile their weaponry in densely populated territory like the Jabaliya refugee camp in many cases makes them a party to the loss of Palestinian civilians - who serve, in effect, as human shields.[2] While it is often forgotten, Israel completely withdrew from the Gaza Strip in August 2005; it was clear from Israel's disengagement that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had absolutely no interest to operate in Gaza over the last number of years, unless Israel was attacked from Gaza territory. If Gaza rocket attacks on Israel did not occur, there would be no reason for the IDF to operate there.
Nonetheless, Israel very quickly became the subject of harsh international criticism. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon condemned Israel's "disproportionate and excessive use of force."[3] The EU presidency followed this language, referring to "the recent disproportionate use of force by the Israel Defense Forces against the Palestinian population in Gaza."[4] Western armies are engaged in asymmetric warfare against the Taliban in Afghanistan and Al-Qaeda in Iraq, yet no such statements are made with regard to these legitimate battles in the war on terrorism. To their credit, the U.S. and Britain rejected efforts to have the UN Security Council adopt a draft resolution further condemning Israel, but the discussions in New York demonstrated how UN member states had little idea of the magnitude of the rocket threat that Israel was facing and could also face in the future.
In order to best understand the main factors affecting the Palestinian rocket threat to Israel from Gaza, it is useful to examine the data in the accompanying maps and chart (see maps and chart below), based on data from the Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, which uses the IDF General Staff Operations Division as its source. What emerges from this data are the following conclusions.
Rocket Fire Began and Grew When Fatah Controlled Gaza
The Kassam rocket threat started in 2001 and grew when the Palestinian Authority was under Fatah control. Hamas introduced the Kassam rocket for the first time in 2001, and there was a steady increase in Kassam rocket fire against Israel from 2002 through 2005. Even after the death of Yasser Arafat in November 2004, Kassam rocket fire from Gaza continued under the regime of Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen). True, Abbas called on Palestinians to stop firing rockets into Israel in 2006, but on the ground, he and the Fatah leadership were either unwilling or unable to halt the Hamas attacks as they increased - with only one exception. In August 2005, Kassam rocket attacks were dramatically reduced so that they would not get in the way of Israel's Gaza pullout.
Additionally, Fatah-affiliated groups in Gaza developed their own rocket systems: both the al-Aqsa rocket and the al-Yasser rocket. The Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades of Fatah in Gaza also fires rockets into Israel, and a Fatah squad in Tulkarm in the West Bank made two attempts to launch rockets at Israel.[5]
Palestinian Rocket Fire Jumps After Israel's Gaza Disengagement
Kassam rocket fire did not start with Israel's Gaza disengagement. Nonetheless, after disengagement the number of confirmed rocket strikes against Israel increased by more than 500 percent. During the year 2005, Israel absorbed 179 rocket strikes. Gaza disengagement was implemented in August 2005. The number of rocket strikes in the year 2006 shot up to 946 - a five-fold increase. What initially allowed the Palestinian organizations to develop their rocket capability with impunity was Israel's original withdrawal from most of the Gaza Strip in 1994 in accordance with the Gaza-Jericho Agreement under the Oslo Accord.
The 2005 Gaza disengagement provided Hamas with a sense of empowerment and self-confidence that led to a clear-cut escalation in the employment of the rocket capabilities that they had previously acquired. Politically, this led to the victory of Hamas in the Palestinian Authority parliamentary elections in January 2006. But militarily, Gaza disengagement also led to a dramatic increase in rocket attacks, as previously described.
Loss of Control Over Egypt-Gaza Border Led to Iranian Rockets on Ashkelon
The disengagement from Gaza led to the loss of Israeli control over the Philadelphi route between the Gaza Strip and Egyptian Sinai, allowing for a significant increase in the range and quantity of rockets in the Palestinian arsenal. What is dramatically new in the rocket attacks in 2008 are the range and quantity of rockets being fired. Ashkelon, a city of 120,000, was repeatedly struck by Katyusha (Grad) rockets in late February 2008. In 2007 and 2008, the Israeli city of Netivot was also a Palestinian target.
Prior to 2006, the number of Palestinian rocket attacks rarely reached 50 per month. By early 2008, Palestinian organizations displayed a capability of launching 50 rockets per day. Two events further contributed to the ease with which Hamas and other organizations could import materials and know-how for expanding their rocket forces: first, the Hamas military takeover in Gaza during June 2007, and second, the breaching of the Egyptian-Gaza border fence in January 2008.
As a result, the quantities of explosives and foreign-produced, longer-range rockets that could enter Gazan territory increased dramatically. Yuval Diskin, the head of the Israel Security Agency, told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee in early 2006 that the amount of explosives smuggled into the Gaza Strip from Egypt had grown drastically - by more than 300 percent.[6] True, the Palestinian organizations had used tunnels in past years to smuggle weaponry from Egyptian Sinai into Gaza. But clearly, once Hamas was fully in control in Gaza and the Egyptian border was regularly breached, the scale of this smuggling mushroomed.
According to Diskin, by November 2006, 33 tons of military grade explosives had been smuggled into the Gaza Strip since the 2005 disengagement. That number increased to 112 tons of explosives by October 2007.[7] Increasingly longer-range rockets came into Gaza freely as well.[8] Israeli security forces recently discovered in the western Negev the remains of a new 175 mm. rocket of Iranian origin that has a range of 26 kilometers.[9]
Should present trends continue, Israel will have to contend with yet another generation of rockets that could be deployed beyond the Katyushas that are hitting Ashkelon. Hamas spokesmen have already expressed their ambition of extending the range of their rockets to Ashdod, Israel's second major seaport for handling international cargo. Israeli security sources expect that Iran will try to smuggle its Fajr rockets to Gaza in the future. A 45-kilometer-range Fajr 3, for example, could be smuggled in sections and assembled in Gaza.[10]
The Failure of EU Monitors
In the aftermath of the Gaza disengagement, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice brokered the Rafah Crossing Agreement on November 15, 2005, to regulate the Gaza-Egyptian Border. The agreement provided for third-party monitors who were supplied by the European Union. The European monitors did not succeed in halting the flow of weapons or cash to the terrorist organizations. Moreover, as the security situation in the Gaza Strip deteriorated in 2006 and 2007, the EU monitors repeatedly withdrew from the border crossing area. In addition, Egypt has been completely unhelpful in the Rafah border area; Cairo even allowed Hamas operatives to leave Gaza in transit to Tehran, where they were trained by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) before returning to Gaza.
Two Key Areas of Concern
Israel currently faces many difficult choices in the face of continued Kassam and Katyusha rocket attacks on its cities, and Israel's security establishment will ultimately have to address two specific areas:
- The Philadelphi Route - As long as the Philadelphi route along the Gaza-Egypt border is open for Hamas smuggling, the risk to Israel will grow, as Iran exports rockets of increasing range to the Gaza Strip. The port of Ashdod is the next likely target, but should Fajr rockets reach Gaza, there is no reason why Hamas cannot pose a threat to Tel Aviv.
- The Northern Gaza Launch Sites - The short-range Kassam rockets used by the Palestinians are locally produced and, therefore, cannot be halted by efforts to close the Philadelphi route. However, control of the launch areas in northern Gaza could significantly reduce the ability of Hamas to harass Sderot and the communities of the western Negev with rocket and mortar fire.
The repeated lesson of the last seven years is that only Israel can ultimately be responsible for its own security.
The repeated lesson of the last seven years is that only Israel can ultimately be responsible for its own security. The use of European Union monitors in the Rafah crossing area did not work out; nor will other international monitors provide security in the future in such a dangerous area. Egypt understands that a Muslim Brotherhood regime in Gaza endangers its own security, but there are limits to what Egypt can realistically do to confront Hamas, without alienating Egyptian domestic opinion. Furthermore, even when the Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority was in control of Gaza, it never fully halted the Hamas rocket attacks that emanated from territories under its jurisdiction.
Israel's war against Hamas is hardly over. As Hamas attacks continue, Israel will have to take further measures to suppress Hamas rocket fire. Presently, the Hamas leadership understands that repeated Katyusha attacks against Ashkelon will result in an Israeli ground incursion that can cost them nearly one hundred of their personnel. But without addressing the Philadelphi route or the northern Gaza launch sites, it is doubtful that these kinds of deterrence calculations alone will bring the Hamas rockets to a halt and alleviate the misery of the Israeli residents of Sderot.
In parallel to its military response, however, Israel will need to wage a strong diplomatic effort to safeguard its right of self-defense, which many in the international community seek to erode. Even in this latest round of conflict, as Israel sought to defend itself from Palestinian rocket attacks, it has already faced harsh criticism, which will only foster new international pressures when struggle with Hamas is resumed.
Notes
1. Rocket Threat from the Gaza Strip, 2000-2007, Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center at the Israel Intelligence Heritage & Commemoration Center (IICC), December 2007, p. 70.
2.Ibid., p. 64.
3. Anne Penketu, "U.S. and Arab States Clash at UN Security Council," The Independent (UK), March 3, 2008.
4. "U.S. Calls for End to Violence; Arab World Protests Gaza Deaths," Ha'aretz, March 3, 2008, http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/959947.html.
5. Rocket Threat from the Gaza Strip, 2000-2007, p. 69.
6. Yaakov Katz, "3,000 Weapons Streaming Monthly into Gaza," Jerusalem Post, January 2, 2006.
9. Alex Fishman and Aryeh Algozi, "The Concern: The Range Will Continue to Grow,"Yediot Ahronot (Hebrew), March 3, 2008.
10. Ibid

The Increasing Range of Palestinian High-Trajectory Fire Against Israeli Cities and Towns

The Sharp Increase in the Palestinian Rocket Attacks: 2000-2008

(18) Anonymous, November 12, 2012 5:51 AM
If the palestinians have any brain at all, they would have used all that money spent on rockets to destroy Israel for their people welfare instead. Wasted donations.... I agree with Marsha above. Israel should do what needs to be done and not to worry so much what the world thinks. The whole world always blames Israel anyway....
(17) Jim Triplett, December 25, 2008 1:03 PM
MAKE GAZA SMALLER !!
Warn them of repeated rocket attacks after a specfied date. Then slowly reduce the size of Gaza. Forget any treaties signed. No use to honor any treaty with them if rocket attacks are part of it.. thats nuts!! Start with shrinking its size from the northern part first, including moving the people south into a smaller area to monitor. Let the other arab countries take some palantines into their country..since they are so concerned for them, and dont back down. There will be some comments from Britian, the US and the EU. But the population wont be behind them..
(16) Ruth, March 11, 2008 7:56 AM
Its all about Oil
Why would UN criticize Israel for her acts of self defense? - Oil. In the Arab lands and control. It's an age old story that we all know. Yet, Hashem had allowed it to be this way, that Ishmael be abundantly blessed... and Israel to face trials and tribulations. We would not know the plan of Hashem, but let us as one Jewish people, unite in obedience to Him. I believe this war will have to be fought in the spirit realm. Hashem is a good Father. May all souls who died for this purpose be gathered into His loving eternal embrace. Israel will not cower, but continue to fight - physically, and spiritually.
(15) raye, March 10, 2008 12:34 AM
A terrorist by any other name
Why do you call them Palestinians? Who are they. Where are they from? The whole Arab worldis involved, even those nations we consider our friends.
(14) Marsha, CT, USA, March 9, 2008 6:36 PM
Not good enough, Dr. Gold
Nice article and charts. Very informative. But I know I'm not the only one here who is sick to death of hearing about 1 legged 8 year olds. Israel is going to take the blame no matter WHAT she does, so why doesn't she just DO WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE. The next bomb that is shot over the border should be reponded to with enough fire power to send Gaza back into the Dark Ages. This is where they're living anyway. They've had plenty of chances to act civilized. They don't WANT to. They WANT to wallow in misery.So let's GIVE THEM WHAT THEY DESERVE!!!! Enough is enough!!!!!
ladydi, September 22, 2011 6:00 PM
make parking lots out of them!!!
(13) Homer Whetzel, March 9, 2008 6:11 PM
Why blame Israel for everything???
Didn't the UN approve all this land to the Jews in 1948? Hasn't everyone tried to take this land from the Jews ever since? Why is everything the Jews fault when its actually everyone else's fault - to include my home land of the USA. G-D Bless Israel!!!
(12) Jason Paz, March 9, 2008 12:31 PM
Israelis and Arabs May Unite in Death
Israelis and Arabs forget we have common enemies. Here is a possible scenario. Four nuclear devices explode in the four major Israeli cities.
The Israelis launch 250 fighter/bombers to nuke 500 population centers in the Arab World.
Years later the few survivors may learn it was a false flags CIA op, or maybe a Russian ploy to obtain oilfields.
Continued turmoil plays into the hands of our enemies.
(11) Bob Reid, March 9, 2008 9:59 AM
We are responsible for our own destiny.
As long as the wild eyed Islamics begin training their offspring before they are born to hate Jews and Christians..the only way to end this conflict is one very large well placed bomb and take them all out for good.
(they wouldn't hestitate to do that to Israel) It will come to that sometime in the future..the entire world is not ruled by the Euro-weenies..many of us adhere to the Ronald Reagan doctrine of war...we win, they lose..that simple.
(10) Reg Saretsky, March 9, 2008 6:36 AM
Pink Floyd "Animals"
Harmlessly passing your time in the grassland away;
Only dimly aware of a certain unease in the air.
You better watch out,
There may be dogs about
I've looked over Jordan, and I have seen
Things are not what they seem.
What do you get for pretending the danger's not real.
Meek and obedient you follow the leader
Down well trodden corridors into the valley of steel.
What a surprise!
A look of terminal shock in your eyes.
Now things are really what they seem.
No, this is not a bad dream.
(9) George, March 7, 2008 8:29 PM
It's ridiculous
It's totally ludicrous the way Israel is treated. If Russia, the US, or China faced the type of rocket attacks that Israel faces from a bordering country, it would take about 10 seconds for one of those countries to invade the other country and make sure the rocket attacks stopped. Israel's hands are tied by the UN and quite frankly it's insane.
(8) ElDavid, March 7, 2008 5:36 AM
I have followed the "Arab Israeli" conflict since the 6 day war. Peace will NEVER COME to the state of Israel until Gaza and all Jerusalem, Jordan, Syria and Labanon are under the control of Israel.
Israel must fight on for their survival because your enemies will crush you if you don't. It is not given to man or delegations to negotiate peace in Israel
they will all fail as they have all failed in the past, the only peace is the sword.
The UN, The EU, The AL, The British, are all empty platitudes like a desert scorpion on your back.
This is Israel motivation.
THE ARABS WANT YOU DEAD- they cannot remove the features of their fathers neither can they remove the hate and vengeance from their hearts.
(7) Beverly Kurtin, March 6, 2008 9:51 PM
Homemade explosives
Oh WOW, what is Israel griping about? After all the rockets are just home made and/or cobbled together. How much damage can they do? Excuse me, what's that? Timothy McVeigh brought down the Murah Building in Oklahoma City with a . . . uhh, oh yeah, a HOME MADE BOMB, killing hundreds of innocent people.
Then there are the home made IEDs that are killing American troops by the dozens...remember, Improvised Explosive Devices are just home made bombs.
So what's the big deal with the rockets that are slamming into Israel? They can't actually KILL anyone, can they? Huh? They DO kill? But they're only home made, cobbled together and highly inaccurate. Oh my, oh my...who to believe, Gobels...oh, I meant the Arabs or the Israelis or the Americans or...
What a world we live in. If that wasn't enough, the price of gasoline is about to make me park my car...I can't wait to find out how the "press" is going to blame us for that.
(6) Private Citizen, March 6, 2008 7:39 PM
This Ad Will Air on Radio Talkline Saturday Night!
In light of the fact Palestinian president Abbas was Arafat's deputy in the Palestinian Authority, that every time Israel responds to rocket fire on it's cities Abbas condemns the Israelis, that Abbas never even hinted any compromise on any hard core Palestinian positions, and finally Abbas's reference to an Israel military action recently against Palestinian terrorists that were firing rockets at Israeli cities, as "worse than the Holocaust", and that the Gaza Strip is ruled by Hamas who were voted in by the Palestinian people of Gaza and the West Bank, it is clear the whole peace process is really a massive lie.
Not only does Israel have the right to defend its people from terrorist rocket attacks by going into Gaza, it should not be pressured
to make concessions by the US or others, and should not make concessions on its own, to Abbas who does not act or look like a capable partner.
What happened to Southern Israel due to Israeli withdrawals must not now be forced on more of Israel's cities.
President Bush and Secretary Rice, before Palestinian democracy must come civilized behavior, respect for the value of life, and tolerance for others.
(5) Howard, March 6, 2008 11:15 AM
need for US mediation
This reinforces the need for US mediation and involvement. While the chances of an overall settllement are unlikely, mediation has helped. Stein wrote that 7 years is a modest number, and is the years Bush, Jr. has been in office.
An assertive US policy promiting discussions and resolution, helps Israel, the US and the world. Note too, that Bush, Jr. defered to Israel more than any other president and that deferral accomplished little. Whoever becomes president, we should hope for sustained involvement, mediation, negotiation with both sides. The punish terrorism, and let Israel do what it wishes has now been tried for 8 years and shown to be a success for no one.
(4) MESA, March 6, 2008 10:48 AM
Why can't Israeli leaders see...
Why on earth are the Israeli leaders not learning from the past? The rest of the world has not helped us before, and they're not going to help us now. We need to trust in HaKadosh Baruch Hu, forget about the opinions of the UN and others, and just do the right thing, which is to defend our people and our country.
(3) Jon Stein, March 6, 2008 8:06 AM
Not quite accurate
"The repeated lesson of the last seven years is that only Israel can ultimately be responsible for its own security"
Seven years is a modest number, lets make it accurate, sixty years.
(2) Tamara, March 5, 2008 8:57 AM
Great Article!
Great article! Highly informative.
Why is it only an international "CRISIS" when Israel defends itself? The answer is obvious! According to the majority, Israel has no right to exist and she shouldn't have survived the war of independence. What percentage of that is Moslem opinion?
And, please tell me why the territories Israel acquired in 1967 became "OCCUPIED" but no one was bothered when JORDAN controlled that region. I have a Berlitz "Learn Arabic" book that lists Jerico, Bethlehem and Jerusalem as JORDANIAN cities NOT PALESTINIAN. Makes you wonder, no?
(1) Sigvard von Brevern, March 5, 2008 6:38 AM
why does Israel put up with constant rocket attacks and other acts of terrorism ?
I don`t know how thoroughly I am informed,
but it seems to me that Israel is forever
crying and seeking sympathy from other
sources than rather relying on the Lord,
or helping their country.
I am sure, America would not tolerate it, if Mexico would for years fire rockets against them and commit other acts of terrorism. No other civilised
country would allow their neighbor to
allow such. Why Israel?
And they are helping the Palestinians to
establish their state plus sending
humanitarian relief into Gaza. It is very noble of Israel to act in this way,
but as a thank you, they get more rocket
fire. Surely enough is enough?